Several researchers and organizations are already looking ahead to 2025 and what next year might hold in the area of sustainability.
2025 will be among the three hottest years ever
The outlook from the UK’s national weather service – the Met Office – suggest that 2025 is likely to be one of the three hottest years for global average temperature since records began, just behind 2024 and 2023.
Although the natural climate variation pattern El Niño (which had a warming effect in 2023 and 2024) has subsided, next year is predicted to be warm largely due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, a trend that has made every year warmer.
“Interestingly, the warm global temperatures predicted for 2025 occur despite the fact that the tropical Pacific is moving into a La Niña phase, which is causing slightly cooler conditions (…). Years like 2025, which are not dominated by the warming influence of El Niño, should be cooler,” explains Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team responsible for the Met Office’s global forecast for 2025.
The global average temperature for 2025 is expected to be between 1.29 °C and 1.53 °C (with a central estimate of 1.41 °C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). This projection suggests that 2025 will probably be the third consecutive year in which temperatures exceed 1.3 °C.
10 years of the Paris Agreement: COP30 and new commitments
In 2025, the United Nations climate conference (COP30) will take place between November 10 and 21 in the Amazonian city of Belém, Brazil, a decade after the conclusion of the Paris Agreement.
COP30 will be particularly important in trying to secure updated and more ambitious climate action plans. As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are expected to submit new plans at the beginning of 2025, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs form the backbone of global efforts to limit warming, but currently fall far short of the level of ambition needed.
“A consolidated WMO strategy will be developed [World Meteorological Organization] to support countries in updating NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to reflect these elements. A critical element will be the positioning of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) as the authoritative voice of early hydro-meteorological warnings and central actors in promoting science-based solutions, ensuring their strengthened role in the implementation of climate policies and strategies worldwide,” reads one of the WMO’s article.
The UN also pledges to continue “the efforts begun in 2024 to improve the protection of the rainforest and other ecosystems at the biodiversity talks that will resume in Rome in February”.
“Addressing the loss of nature requires more than metrics and disclosure, it requires a systemic transformation of the way economies work. Financial systems must align with urgent environmental goals, including protecting 30% of the planet by 2030 (the 30×30 goal). This transition requires the prioritization of natural capital, the development of innovative financial mechanisms and ensuring that investments reach critical biodiversity areas,” reads the report. Trend Report Nature Finance by the UN.
Proposing and adopting new targets is a “recognition that the current pledges are totally inadequate in terms of reducing temperatures and is part of the agreement that member states signed in 2015 at the Paris COP (nations are expected to ‘increase’ their pledges every five years. The last time this happened was at the Glasgow COP in 2021, which was postponed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic).” recalls the UN.
More climate funding
After the agreement for climate finance paid to developing countries (tripling to 300 billion dollars a year by 2035) was pointed out as insufficient, the UN hopes that more progress will be made on financing in 2025, at a summit in Spain at the end of June, held every ten years.
“Next year’s edition is billed as an opportunity to introduce radical changes to the international financial architecture. Environmental and climate concerns will be raised and potential solutions such as green taxation, carbon pricing and subsidies will be on the table,” says the UN.
Artificial intelligence at the service of sustainability
Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing sustainability efforts. AI tools are optimizing supply chains, improving energy efficiency and enabling real-time decision-making to minimize waste and emissions. Companies are taking advantage of AI to predict environmental risks and implement low-carbon technologies more quickly.
For example, AI-based analysis can help identify inefficiencies in operations, offering practical solutions to improve sustainability. These advances make it easier for organizations to incorporate sustainable practices into their day-to-day operations and promote long-term change.
Climate resilient communities
As climate risks increase, it is essential to build resilience. Green infrastructure projects, such as parks designed to manage flood waters or buildings that can withstand extreme weather conditions, are becoming essential. Companies are investing in nature-based solutions, such as ecosystem restoration, to cope with biodiversity loss and climate impacts. These initiatives not only mitigate risks but also create long-term value for communities.
ESG as an integrated strategy
By 2025, ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) indicators will no longer be seen as a peripheral concern and will be fully integrated into the core strategies of leading companies. This change is motivated by the growing recognition that ESG factors are fundamental to the long-term success and resilience of companies.
Companies will increasingly see ESG not just as a compliance issue, but as a driver of long-term value creation, increasing their competitiveness in a rapidly changing global market.
She might have chosen to study Meteorology and Oceanography, but ultimately pursued Communication. And that's fine because if they don't get their weather predictions right, she wouldn't be the one to change that. She started by looking for sustainable ideas and projects for the university, and since then, she has never stopped (who stops, really?). She loves to watch tv shows, but she watches few because she is demanding. You don't need much to convince her to embrace new, "greener" habits and challenges.
Marta Cerqueira is from Minho and a vegetarian. Luckily, she lives in Lisbon, where there is more tofu than sarrabulho. She has been a journalist for over 15 years, the last of which writing about food and sustainability. Now, out of the newsroom, she continues to write whenever she can, be it in magazines, journals, post its, or on her Instagram page, which she uses to share a life divided between being a mom-person-foodie-traveler. Still, she created Peggada so she could write about what doesn't fit in a magazine, journal, post it or Instagram: a better world.
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