The researchers used an innovative artificial intelligence approach to measure the impact of 1,500 measures implemented by governments in 41 countries over two decades. Only 63 were found to be effective.
A recent study led by climate economists analyzed the effectiveness of 1500 climate policies from sectors including energy, transport and construction, implemented between 1998 and 2022 in 41 different countries, concluding that only 63 policy interventions were successful, resulting in significant carbon dioxide (CO2) reductions.
These measures have reduced total emissions by between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion tons of CO2. In comparison, humanity emitted 57.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2022, and by 2030, the average emissions deficit will still be 23 billion tons of CO2e, according to United Nations (UN) estimates.
In general terms, the research team concluded that:
According to the study, published in Science Magazine,“success stories only emerge in conjunction with tax or price incentives in well-designed policy combinations, as shown in the UK for coal-fired power generation [with the introduction of a minimum carbon price, subsidies for renewables and a coal phase-out plan] or in Norway for cars.”
The authors of the study analyzed 1,500 climate policies documented in a new high-quality database from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and measured the “emission drops” that followed the policy interventions.
To do this, they used a methodology developed by Climate Econometrics at The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford) that mixes artificial intelligence (machine learning) with statistical analysis. This is the first time that a global policy dataset has been compared and classified in this way.
The researchers have made the data available to policy makers around the world and produced a dashboard visualization of the data, hoping that their work will influence the climate roadmaps that countries are updating and will have to submit to the UN by February 2025.
“The dashboard (…) provides an accessible platform for making country-by-country and sector-by-sector comparisons and for finding the right policy mix for different situations,” explainsProfessor Felix Pretis, co-author of the study and co-Director of the Climate Econometrics Program at Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
“The low number of large emission reductions is certainly worrying. But our study also brings good news. Firstly, the proliferation of policies has taken place over the last decade: our data shows that in 2022, the average number of climate policy adoptions was between four and eight policies per country. On the other hand, the 63 cases of successful climate policies help us to understand the main characteristics of what works,” Annika Stechemesser, a PIK researcher and the study’s lead author, says to ABC.
The study “Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades” was developed by researchers from the University of Oxford, PIK and the Mercator Institute for Research on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), in collaboration with experts from the universities of Oxford and Victoria, as well as the OECD.
Applications for the European Climate Pact Ambassadors are open until October 31st. If you are passionate about climate action and want to inspire your community,
This article addresses an action that promotes the adoption of urgent measures to fight climate change and its impacts. SDG 13 also aims to improve education on climate change mitigation and impact reduction.
To discover businesses that are actively working to contribute to this Sustainable Development Goal, click here. To read news, interviews or tips related to this Goal, click here.Esta publicação também está disponível em:
Português (Portuguese (Portugal))
